Simpson’s Paradox: How statistics can mislead

What hospital to go to: A or B. Well, hospital A’s patients survive 90% of the time and hospital B’s survive 10% of time. Clearly, hospital A is the right choice. Well, not necessarily. Hospital B’s patients could be a much sicker group to begin with. Should you buy stock in company A or company B. Well, A has higher margin and faster growth, So clearly company A. Well, not necessarily. Company A also has too much debt and its growth is all from acquisitions. Company B’s growth is organic and its balance sheet is debt free. Similarly, is there gender discrimination in at college x. Well, say 60% of women who apply are admitted while 90% of men are. Clearly there is discrimination, right? Not necessarily. Perhaps the women are applying to more competitive departments. It is extraordinarily easy to come to the wrong conclusion based on incomplete data. Demagogues love twisting your emotions with data that sound compelling when critical, granular data is omitted.

Education First Policy: Three Thoughts

1.) Education is the key to our economy, our democracy, and our identity. Without rigorous training our economic potential will not be realized. Without civic literacy, true democracy is impossible. If our children are not taught to focus on the shared, the positive, and the future, their full humanity will not be reached.

2.) Education happens in homes, schools, and communities. Any strategy aimed at “fixing education” must address all three fronts.

3.) Education is not just about academics – it’s also about arts, athletics, and character. Equal schools means equally rigorous training programs in each of these “non-academic” areas.

Check out:

www.thinkingcitizen.com

and

www.educationfirstparty.com

Feedback much appreciated.

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Your Liberal Arts Pre-Test will be your first entry in your digital Liberal Arts Academy Journal.

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What is well-roundedness?

Take no more than 4 minutes to write an answer to each question in your newly created Liberal Arts Academy Journal.

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