Economics

Principle                    Example #1                Example #2             Example #3

#1 Tax it get less of it, Subsidize it, get more of it.

Aka “humans are rational utility maximizers”

Aka “incentives matter”

Aka Demand curve slopes downward and to the right. And supply curve upward to the right.

Tax work, get less work. Subsidize non-work get more non-work. No wonder our labor force participation rate is so low. Tax marriage, get less marriage. Subsidize non-marriage get more of it. No wonder single parenthood has skyrocketed.  

Tax savings with negative real interest rates, get less savings. Subsidize speculation with negative real interest, get more speculation. Surprise, surprise.

Look at our

Savings rate! Look at a pattern of rotating bubbles.

The minimum wage is a tax on hiring, raise it get less hiring. Rent control is a tax on housing. Rent control leads to housing shortages.

Regulation is a tax on business, reduces number of businesses, favors

big companies

versus small.

#2 The Paradox of the Invisible Hand,

aka the miracle of the equilibrium point in the supply demand curve, aka the free exchange of ideas, goods, and services, tends to to maximize prosperity for all.

Minimize state interference.

This explains the relative prosperity of North versus South Korea.

Ever seen a satellite photo the Asia at night?

The more free an economy, the more prosperous the society. Selfishness is paradoxically good for all.
 
 
 

The relative success of the Soviet Union and Maoist China versus the United States and post-Maoist China.

Communism is great in theory, in practice a nightmare.
 
 
 
 
 

The relative success of Brazil, Mexico, after free market reforms relative to Cuba, Zimbabwe,

and other command and control economies.

After all, the way to maximize profits is to meet the needs of others.

#3 Government is necessary to prevent monopolies, to provide public goods, and make sure that externalities are priced in.
 
 
 
The cost of pollution made life in many US cities unlivable in the 1970s. Every time I take a deep breath on the street, I thank God for regulation.
 
 
 
Without safe streets and law and order, life would be poor, lonely, nasty, brutish and short.

As it is in certain zip codes where these public goods are not provided.

The key to prosperity long term is productivity growth – the key to which is maximizing human capital through public education.
 
 

 

Political Science

Four Take-aways

       Example #1                    Example #2             Example #3

#1

 

Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Stalinist Russia

Maoist China

Castro’s Cuba

Mugabe’s Zimbabwe

Hitler’s Germany

Richard Daley’s Chicago

Curley’s Boston

Young’s Detroit

Barry’s Washington DC

Renaissance Popes

Pedophilia in Catholic Church

Polygamy and Mormon founders.

Henry VIII and Anglicanism

#2

Government is inherently evil because it involves coercion, but inherently necessary because men are not angels

(Madison).

 

The anarchy of renaissance Italy

Versus Pax Romana; Articles of Confederation versus Constitution

 

The anarchy of Rwanda, Congo, warring states period in China

Versus the relative peace under

Genghis Khan

 

The anarchy of Iraq, Syria, versus

Pax Americana

#3

 

Government debt tends to rise because given the choice between spending more and gaining votes and taxing more and losing votes, politicians always choose the former.

 

 

 

The Ancient World:

 

Rome the poster child of bread, circuses and currency debasement.

 

The Modern World:

 

Greece

Argentina

 

The United States:

 

The real debt of the United States is about $200 trillion not the reported $17 trillion.

The Fed obligingly funds the debt with currency debasement and negative real rates.

 

#4

 

The separation of powers is a good idea.

 

 

 

Geographic separation:

 

Local, state, and federal

 

 

Functional separation:

 

Legislative, executive, judicial

 

 

 

Separation of church and state

 

 

 

 

History

                                         Lesson #1                     Lesson #2                     Lesson #3

 

 

 

 

Progressive

consensus

Class is ultimately all that matters. All

history is the history of the exploitation of the have-nots by the haves.

The history of the West is the history of the exploitation of the non-white by the white and the history of mankind is the history of the exploitation of women. Western and US imperialism

are the causes of anti-Americanism and terrorism.

 

This is the lesson of Vietnam, Iraq.

 

 

 

Conservative

consensus

Communist premises lead to tyranny, injustice,

and poverty —

as in Soviet Union, China,

Cuba, Zimbabwe

Free markets lead to rising standards of living —in China

As in the US,

Europe, Brazil, Mexico. The West has been a hugely net positive force in world history.

Peace comes through strength not appeasement.

Weakness encourages aggression. This is the lesson of Munich and 9/11.

 

 

 

 

Is there a middle ground?

 

 

Free markets lead to rising standards of living —in China

As in the US,

Europe, Brazil, Mexico. The class

Is all that matters premise is false.

The driver of history is human imagination not class struggle.

Property is not theft but the fence of liberty.

Free markets are not enough.

Education and health are public goods and high standards of each for all are the government’s business. The West has been a net positive force

for the world and this can be measured by the relative degree of gender and racial equality there

The lessons of Munich, 9/11, Vietnam, and Iraq are all worth remembering.

Hindsight is 20/20.

The choice of the wrong analogy could result in untold human slaughter. What sane person would want to take on

that burden?

(ie what sane person would want to be president?)

 

Constitutional Law

Time for a 4th Amendment Package?

 

Make more                   Reduce                      Establish                End taxation
“Democratic”               Corruption                Justice/Freedom   without Represent

Abolish Senate Single longer terms for Congressmen Equal schools amendment – equal programs, equal disciplinary standards Balanced budget amendment

Transparent Citizen’s Guide to Financial Report

Abolish Electoral

College

Single longer term for president Education as fundamental right amendment Rule based monetary policy: violation of article 1, Section 9
Tweak Senate Automated districting to eliminate gerrymandering Basic Income
amendment – end current welfare system 82 programs
Statehood for DC
Tweak Electoral College Require Congressmen to read bills – if don’t read who wrote? GBrubstake

Amendment

Statehood for Puerto Rico
E voting Transparency – every clause in every bill author disclosed No zip code safety gap amendment National Teaching and Citizenship Acadenies
Automatic voter

registration

Limits on donations End affirmative action End rule by executive decree
Mandatory Voting End disparate impact mandates End filibustering
Direct Referenda

(a la Switzerland)

End Price Controls

(min wage, rent control)

End executive pardons
End life tenure for judges Make judges electable Universal DNA testing End dual citizenship
End rule of 5 for judicial decisions Abolish elections of Judges Parent licenses and training programs End age restrictions

 

First three packages: Bill of Rights, Reconstruction Amendments, Progressive package (direct election of Senators, Income Tax, Women’s suffrage, Prohibition)

Much has changed in last 100 years, time to make the law of land consistent with these new realities

 

 

Rhetoric

To be a thinking citizen demands being attuned to logical and statistical fallacies and the propaganda tricks of demagogues.

A rhetorically un-trained citizen is a patsy at the poker table of modern politics.

Logical Fallacies Statistical Fallacies Propaganda Tricks
Begging the Question  Data Omission     Code words
The Straw Man  Correlation and Causation

Confusion

    Manipulative Images
The False Dilemma  Misleading aggregate data     Dog whistles
 Ad hominem  Survey question framing     Wedges
 Appeal to Emotion:

(spite, fear)

 Cherry picking     Old fashioned bold lies
Appeal to Authority Sampling errors     Camera angles
The Red Herring    Composition
Appeal to the Majority    Lighting
Moving the Goal Posts    Testimonials
Fallacy of Composition    Scapegoats
Moral high ground fallacy
Furtive fallacies
Hasty generalization/

Converse accident

Argumentum ad baculum

(might makes right,

appeal to consequences)

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
Non sequitur

 

A fallacy does not prove a claim false. But its use does undermine it.

Swift quote on lies: falsehood flies and truth comes limping after it.

A lie travels halfway around the world while truth still putting on its shoes.

People remember the lie not so much the truth.